The Skyscraper Theory
Are skylines an indicator of past and current global powers? Can they predict the next one?
So this is something I’ve been pondering for probably around 8 years now after I went to The Skyscraper Museum near Battery Park in Manhattan on a trip to NYC. Now I haven’t been back since but the exhibit I remember the most was a timeline of the tallest buildings in the world. And what got me was they color coded them by continent and throughout the 20th Century most of them were in the USA (NYC or Chicago) but as the century progressed you started seeing them in Asia and then in the Middle East as we got further into the 21st Century.
This is probably more of a correlation than causation thing but since I’ve been thinking about it for practically 8 years and that I have this Substack, I figured I’ll finally look into it. This information is on a few Wikipedia pages which is what I’ll be using for this post but I do recommend going to the Skyscraper Museum if you want something a little off the beaten path in NYC and I hope to make it back myself eventually.
Now, impressive buildings have survived longer than the civilizations that had built them in many instances. Think the Great Pyramids of Giza, the Greek Ruins, Machu Pichu, Chichen Itza, or the Roman Colosseum for a few examples. The Wikipedia table starts at the 13th Century, so we’ll begin there. From 1311-1884 the tallest structures built were all churches or cathedrals in Western Europe (England, Germany, and France). And as history has shown us, this is when Europe was at it’s peak in terms of a super power.
On a side note, I believe I’ve mentioned this before and I want to write a post on it, but after reading Soccernomics, it mentioned the power of knowledge networks. In the context of the book it was trying to explain why all the World Cup winners come from clusters of countries that border each other. You have the European cluster: England, France, Italy, Germany, and Spain. And then you have the South American cluster: Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. In a larger historical context it has lead to some amazing breakthrough in human history such as the Renaissance but it also has a dark side leading to two world wars. Something I’ve been pondering lately is that with the rise of the internet and globalization, has this neutered one of Europe’s biggest advantages, that being these knowledge network? Have other parts of the world begun to catch up because information spreads so far and fast? Anyway, I hope to delve into this a little more in the future but let’s get back to skyscrapers.
The Washington Monument was built in 1884 and at the time of it’s completion became the world’s tallest structure at 555 feet. Now it’s not a skyscraper it’s a stone obelisk. The Eiffel Tower was completed in 1889 at a height of 1,024 feet but again this is not a skyscraper it’s a lattice tower.
The first skyscraper is often considered the Home Insurance Building in Chicago but it was only 138 feet upon completion (though it would later have an addition of 2 stories to bring it up to 180 feet). The first skyscraper to take the world’s tallest building title is either Philadelphia City Hall (1894) at 548 feet or The Singer Building in NYC (1908) at 630 feet. The Next 6 skyscrapers to claim the world’s tallest building title were all in NYC:
Metropolitan Life Tower (1909) - 699 Feet
Woolworth Building (1913) - 791 Feet
40 Wall Street (1930) - 928 Feet
Chrysler Building (1930) - 1,046 Feet
Empire State Building (1931) - 1,250 Feet
1 World Trade Center (1973) - 1,368 Feet
The Sears Tower in Chicago also opened in 1973 at 1,450 Feet and remained the tallest building in the world until 1998. This 90-year span of tallest building in the world being in either NYC or Chicago would line up well with the United States' ascendancy as the Global Super Power from 1908-1945 and then as the Global Super Power from 1945-Pressent. Of course history is usually a gradual change, and we only see when things change in hindsight but starting in 1998 the world’s tallest building had a 12-year span of being in Asia:
Petronas Tower in Malaysia (1998) - 1,483 Feet
Taipei 101 in Taiwan (2004) - 1,670 Feet
One could argue Asia is still on the ascendancy but there are many very populous countries that are vying for super power status. Maybe super power isn’t the best way to look at it and it should be looked at as influence and where the money is. Either way it only lasted 12 years as the Burj Khlaifa was built in Dubai in 2010 and at 2,717 feet smashed the record for tallest building.
It does feel like the the world is at a turning point and that the world order that was established after World War II is turning obsolete or already obsolete and we are in a transitional period. Look into the Fourth Turning theory for more on this. Again, only time will tell and it’s best to look at history from 30,000 feet rather than at eye level.
One other thing to look at before we go is the list of cities with the most skyscrapers. There are 37 cities with over 50 skyscrapers and the continental breakdown is as follows:
Asia - 27 (Too many to list but I’ll link below)
North America - 4 (New York City, Chicago, Toronto, Miami)
Middle East - 2 (Dubai and Doha)
Europe - 2 (Istanbul and Moscow)
Central America -1 (Panama City)
Oceania - 1 (Melbourne)
Maybe this isn’t so much as an indicator of super power it’s just an indicator of population. Asia is the most populous continent on the planet and when you have a lot of people you run out of areas to build out and you end up building up. A quick look at population densities of these cities would surely confirm this. It also should be noted that there are other factors as to why skyscrapers might not be feasible in a specific city, such as geology, soil, or earthquakes to name a few.
So, thanks for reading along as I finally researched this myself. I would say tallest building/skyscraper could definitely be an indicator for the power status of a civilization or society but it could also just be an indicator of a populous civilization or society. Of course, keeping in mind the first skyscraper was only built in the 1880s, there isn’t a ton of human history where they’ve been in existence. If the Romans, Greeks, or older Chinese dynasties had this technology, would they have built super tall buildings as a status symbol? We will never know but it sure is fun to ponder.
Sources:
Wikipedia: History of the World’s Tallest Building
Wikipedia: History of the World’s Tallest Structures
Wikipedia: List of Tallest Buildings
Wikipedia: List of Cities with the Most Skyscrapers
Wikipedia: Strauss-Howe Generational Theory (Fourth Turning)
Wikipedia: Fourth Turning book
Very interesting. Are you going to explore further?